Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXII

Abstract

SUMMARY Hasofer (1966) has reviewed some occurrences in the Talmud of the use of random mechanisms to secure a 'fair' outcome. In the present paper, probabilistic notions in the Talmud are investigated particularly as they occur in situations other than those involving a deliberate use of chance. Questions involving probability considerations occur frequently in the ancient rabbinic literature, and we shall show that the Rabbis computed probabilities in accordance with certain preconceived logical principles. There are, in fact, two Talmuds. They consist of (a) a common basic text, the )ishnah, substantially completed in the second century, and (b) the Gemara, the discussions of the Rabbis on the text of the Mishnah. The Jerusalem Talmud was brought to essentially its present form by the end of the fourth century, the Babylonian Talmud about a century later. References to Talmudic texts are given in the standard form, i.e. tractate, folio number and side for the Babylonian Talmud, and, for the Jerusalem Talmud, tractate, chapter and section, just as for the Mishnah. For a general introduction to the Talmuds, see Strack (1945).