Student pathways at the university: patterns and predictors of completion

Abstract

This article outlines a longitudinal pathway analysis of student performance within educational institutions, so as to identify student profiles which describe those groups of students who are more likely to complete or leave a bachelor degree program, and to identify the predictors for these outcomes. The analyses are based on 7314 undergraduate student enrolment and completion data, covering the period from 2001 to 2005, from a large metropolitan New Zealand university. A prospective approach was used to describe the pathway outcomes of students after every academic year in the program; thus, student pathway outcomes for any particular year were developed based on the student’s status in the following year. The effects of demographic characteristics such as gender, ethnicity, socio‐economic status, age and achievement on university entry examinations on student’s pathways outcomes are minor, once achievement and study‐related factors are controlled. The intensity of study, students’ progress toward completion of total point requirements for the program, grade point average and field of study were the important predictors of different pathway outcomes for students. It is suggested that this study significantly contributes to the existing knowledge by establishing a robust methodology for longitudinal pathway analysis of student performance within educational institutions.