Struggle for Libya: External Actors and Their Bets

Abstract

Libya is the country affected most by the Arab Spring and actually disintegrated into separate enclaves, which was largely facilitated by the actions of external actors, primarily the United States and France. External forces continue to influence the situation in Libya in their own interests, largely consisting in access to the natural resources of this country and ensuring political influence through the support of forces loyal to them. In addition to the abovementioned countries, Italy, Germany, Russia, China, Turkey, Egypt and, to a certain extent, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also involved in the Libyan events. The article examines in a historical context their views on the problem, the interests of external actors and the military-political and economic tools used to ensure them. The pandemic somewhat constrained their actions, but in the current situation Turkey was the most active, intervening in the course of the Libyan conflict, showing a high degree of interest in access to Libyan oil and gas, and strengthening its own, including geopolitical, positions. The United States is trying to act through UN institutions, while Russia is trying to find compromises between the two main forces of the Libyan conflict. At this stage, the positions of external players are so contradictory that achieving peace and stability looks difficult, and attempts to coordinate their actions within the framework of the Berlin Forum have not been crowned with success. For now, the efforts of the United States look preferable in terms of influencing the overall situation, although Germany retains the best chances to mediate. The article also examines the possible consequences of the unsettled situation in Libya and the impact of the Libyan events on the outside world.