Structured additive regression modeling of age of menarche and menopause in a breast cancer screening program

Abstract

Breast cancer risk is believed to be associated with several reproductive factors, such as early menarche and late menopause. This study is based on the registries of the first time a woman enters the screening program, and presents a spatio-temporal analysis of the variables age of menarche and age of menopause along with other reproductive and socioeconomic factors. The database was provided by the Portuguese Cancer League (LPCC), a private nonprofit organization dealing with multiple issues related to oncology of which the Breast Cancer Screening Program is one of its main activities. The registry consists of 259,652 records of women who entered the screening program for the first time between 1990 and 2007 (45-69-year age group). Structured Additive Regression (STAR) models were used to explore spatial and temporal correlations with a wide range of covariates. These models are flexible enough to deal with a variety of complex datasets, allowing us to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered in this study. The analysis shows that early menarche occurs in younger women and in municipalities located in the interior of central Portugal. Women living in inland municipalities register later ages for menopause, and those born in central Portugal after 1933 show a decreasing trend in the age of menopause. Younger ages of menarche and late menopause are observed in municipalities with a higher purchasing power index. The analysis performed in this study portrays the time evolution of the age of menarche and age of menopause and their spatial characterization, adding to the identification of factors that could be of the utmost importance in future breast cancer incidence research.