Structure, robustness and supply risk in the global wind turbine trade network

Abstract

With the increasingly devastating impacts of climate change, wind energy demand has surged in recent decades, resulting in fierce competition and a complex trade structure in the wind turbine industry. Understanding the hidden risks for the global wind turbine trade network (GWTTN) is of great significance, but the topic has not yet been explored. This study fills this gap by employing complex network methodologies to investigate the GWTTN's structure and supply risks. Structure analyses featuring metrics including topology quantities, communities, and backbones reveal a core–periphery organization and an unbalanced concentration of exports and imports. The unparalleled influence of Europe, weakening of North America, dissolution of European clusters, and rise of Asia have been the main structural characteristics of the network in recent decades. A country disruption simulation, measured by the giant connected component, further manifests the robust yet fragile peculiarity of the GWTTN which implies the difficulty of risk control. Identified by the linear threshold model, the risk transmission path of supply cutoffs indicates the importance of complex trade links and mutual amplification effects in triggering large-scale contagion and market devastation. A redemption simulation strategy setting anti-risk capacity to vary across countries is also proposed to alleviate the aftermath of large-scale disruptions. The results show that enhancement of core countries and interception of key paths can demonstrably suppress supply risk. The policy suggestions based on these systematic investigations have enormous practical implications for the governance and development of the global sustainable energy industry.