Structure and resilience changes of global liquefied natural gas shipping network during the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Abstract

Research on the structure and resilience of marine networks that transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) can inform policies to secure global energy supplies. Since the 1990s, geopolitical risks have been crucial in the LNG supply chain. However, existing research inadequately addresses the impact of major geopolitical events, such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict, on LNG maritime networks. This study utilized 2021–2022 Automatic Identification System (AIS) data to create a global LNG maritime network, including ports and chokepoints, to assess changes in structure and resilience during the Russia–Ukraine conflict. We also simulated changes in network resilience under various attack scenarios. The findings indicate that the Russia–Ukraine conflict has impacted the direction and volume of LNG flows. Structural changes were observed, including changes in the weighted degree of nodes and the composition of port communities. In 2022, the network demonstrated dynamic resilience, invulnerability, and recoverability changes, with noticeable self-healing properties. However, these capabilities were lower than those in 2021. Intentional attacks on maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca, result in a much faster decline in network resilience than random attacks. These findings suggest that the Russia–Ukraine conflict has altered the resilience and structure of LNG maritime networks. Countries heavily dependent on LNG should prioritize expanding their LNG-receiving terminals and diversifying their LNG sourcing strategies.