Structural system reliability assessment using directional simulation

Abstract

The theory for the estimation of the reliability of a structural system which is subject to one or more load processes requires knowledge of the surface defining the mechanical response of the system. For many systems this surface may be known only implicitly and defined through a method of structural analysis. In the formulation presented herein, the surface is obtained using an established probabilistic structural analysis technique. The reliability estimation is formulated in the load process space. In this space, directional simulation is employed to estimate the outcrossing rate and the initial (zero time) probability of failure and hence to estimate the probability of failure at any subsequent time. Two examples using discrete rectangular pulse (Poisson) processes are described.