Structural Shifts in the Economy of the Russian Federation and Its Import Intensity in 2014–2019: Analysis of Macroeconomic Statistics.

Abstract

The introductory part of the article formulates its objective – to characterize development conditions in Russia and main structural changes in the Russian economy (according to 2014–2019 data) from the standpoint of their compliance with the tasks of increasing the stability and quality of the country's economic growth during the transition of the world system to a new technological order. Аccording to the authors, this period is of particular interest in assessing and studying the experience associated with structural transformation in a highly unfavorable external condition amid tight monetary policy and restrictive income policy.The article sequentially addresses certain aspects of the structural transformation of the Russian economy. The authors, relying on macroeconomic statistics, assess shifts in production and use of products, investment, import intensity, the balance of payments, and international investment position, considering external and internal conditions.The paper focuses on analyzing the proportions of the economy according to the data of the Rosstat input-output tables (IOTs). The article provides estimates of structural changes in the dependence of the economy and its segments on types of imports, signifcant changes in the direction of the use of fnal products, including considering the dynamics of changes in the total input of intermediate imports. For the frst time, the characteristics of the concentration of gross value added (GVA) and gross domestic product (GDP) by areas of fnal demand are given. A methodological approach is proposed for monitoring shifts in import consumption by compiling annual summary tables with a minimum set of data obtained during the analytical processing of IOT information. Based on the results of testing this approach on data for 2016 and 2018, the authors rated cost product balances by the share of imports in the resources of products. Conclusions were drawn about the change in the import intensity of the economy for the selected types of products, the import intensity of Russian industries, and shifts in the distribution structure of types of imported products. The article formulates proposals for the development of measures necessary to consolidate and expand positive results of this stage in the development of the Russian economy and statistical support of macroeconomic analysis.