Structural Reliability Analysis of Composite Advanced Sail for Virginia Class Submarine

Abstract

A structural reliability model is developed for a large composite submarine sail structure. Random variables include material strength and stiffness properties as well as load. Limit states are formulated in terms of material strength parameters and buckling resistance. A series system reliability model that bases structural performance on first component failure is used. A total of 205 random variables and 117 limit states compose the structural system model. Most component reliability indices ranged from 3 to 7, with overall system failure governed by material in-plane shear with a reliability index of 1.84. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis determined that load and material strength were the most significant random variables, while material stiffness parameters were unimportant. Significant computational effort was saved by reducing the number of random variables to the most influential set. The effects of correlation and random variable probability distribution were explored. It was found that correlation has little effect on results, but probability distribution is significant. Recommendations are made to improve performance.