Structural Reliability Analysis Applied on Steel Ships for Rule Partial Safety Factors Calibration

Abstract

Ultimate strength assessments in current IACS Common Structural Rules (CSR) are determined by a limited number of constant partial safety factors (PSF). These coefficients are inherited from the previous Common Structural Rules for Oil Tankers, and were determined using a structural reliability analysis (SRA) based on a limited number ship. The authors decided to lead a more comprehensive structural reliability analysis to propose and discuss a new set of rule formulations. A literature review is carried out in order to determine an extensive database of virtual ships covering the whole range of existing ships with a few representative parameters. SRA is applied for ultimate strength assessment on this database. Uncertainties are modeled by a set of probability distributions applied to each characteristic quantity (still water bending moment, wave bending moment and capacity) and a Second Order Reliability Method (SORM) is used to target the ultimate capacity corresponding to a given failure probability for each ship. A set of several PSF formulations are then derived from these results using both Working Stress Design (WSD) and Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approaches. These formulations are then discussed to get an optimum between simplicity and accuracy of the results.