Structural path and decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy intensities in China, 2012-2017

Abstract

The dependence of the economic development of a region on its energy consumption is a major challenge for developing countries. The aggregate embodied energy intensity (AEI) based on an input-output framework reflects the interaction between regional economy and energy consumption driven by final demand. Studying the change in AEI from the perspective of sector production and final demand can effectively control the source and trend of energy intensity change in order to control the growth of energy intensity. However, there is a relative lack of studies determining the causes of AEI changes from the perspective of sectors and final demands. This study attempted to identify the influencing factors of AEI changes and establish an AEI-based environmental policy in China. A multiplicative structural decomposition analysis and a structural path analysis were used to study the AEI under conditions of different final demands, sectors, and transmission layers, along with the factors influencing AEI changes in China from 2012 to 2017. Our results indicate that the final demand category of gross fixed capital formation made the largest contribution to AEI changes in 2012 and 2017, and the multiplicative intensity factor significantly inhibited the decrease in AEI. Among the sectors studied, only a few were found to significantly affect the change in AEI, with “S11-Processing of petroleum, coking, and nuclear fuel”, “S12-Chemical industry”, and “S14-Smelting and rolling of metals” being the key sectors that input high-energy-consumption products to other sectors.