Structural evolutionary analysis of the embodied net carbon transfer network of Belt and Road trade: from the regional and sectoral perspectives.

Abstract

The countries along the "Belt and Road" (B&R) have close cooperative connections economically and in trade, and these connections lead to a large amount of embodied carbon emissions and have formed a complex network of net carbon transfers. Considering 63 countries and 26 sectors, this study uses the Eora multiregional input-output (MRIO) model to construct the embodied carbon transfer networks in 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, and 2016. Additionally, it applies the social network approach to analyze the structural characteristics and evolution of carbon flow networks in the countries and regions along the B&R. The results show that (1) from the regional perspective, the net embodied carbon flow network of trade between countries is connected with an obvious core-periphery structure. The embodied carbon transfer network generally tends to expand over time. (2) The net carbon transfer network can be divided into four blocks, among which 13 countries, such as China, India, and Russia, are part of the main spillover block, and 25 countries, such as Singapore, the UAE, and Israel, are the main beneficiary block. (3) From the sectoral perspective, the embodied carbon transfer network has generally tended to shrink. (4) The net carbon transfer network can also be divided into four blocks, with six industries, such as the wood and paper industry, constituting the main spillover block and 11 industries, such as agriculture, constituting the main beneficiary block. Our findings can provide a factual basis for the coordinated control of carbon emissions from regional and sectoral perspectives in the countries and regions along the B&R and reasonably define the responsibility of producers and consumers of embodied carbon to facilitate a more equitable and effective negotiation process for emission reductions.