Structural Determinants of Fertility in Latin America: 1800-1970

Abstract

This paper 1) estimates the effects of colonial penetration extraction of wealth and 19th century immigration on Latin American modernization and Catholic Church strength at the beginning of the 20th century; 2) estimates the net effect of modernization and Catholic institutional strength (CIS) on crude birthrates and illegitimacy ratios in Lation America in 1910 1940 and 1970; and 3) compares general marital and illegitimate fertility rates in 1960. The objective is to investigate factors that accelerate or retard acceptance of the preconditions resulting in lower fertility. Several procedures were intended to remedy deficiencies of earlier studies: 1) the population was defined as a readily identifiable geographic and cultural group--all Latin American nations with Spanish heritage; 2) a structural equation model of fertility and illegitimacy was employed that incorporated independent effects of modernization and CIS; 3) indicators of modernization were pooled into a unidimensional index; and 4) the relative effects of causal agents were compared for 1910 1940 and 1970. Path coefficients among predictor variables were estimated for 18 countries. Both migration and late colonial penetration took significant paths to 1910 modernization with migration the stronger variable. The 2 variables explained about 83% of the variation among nations in 1900 modernization. Extraction of wealth was the only variable significantly related to 1900 CIS. The partial correlates of modernization and CIS net of the set of preceding predictor variables were not significant for any period beginning in 1910. Path coefficients of structural modernization and CIS on crude birthrates for the 18 countries in 1910 1940 and 1970 suggest increasing and then stable large negative effects of modernization on fertility among Latin nations. The net effect of Church strength on crude birthrates is positive but not always significant. Church strength reduces consensual unions and thus lowers illegitimate fertility butthe negative effect on illegitimacy is counterbalanced by a positive effect on marital fertility rates. The net result is a small positive effect of Church strength on the total number of births.