Structural change in Chinese economy: Impacts on energy use and CO2 emissions in the period 2013–2030

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of the change of economic structure on the emissions and energy use in China. The study uses the ChinaLINDA model, a calculation framework especially well-suited for analyzing structural change and sectoral shifts in Chinese economy and industry. We illustrate the implications of the different economic development paths up to year 2030 regarding emissions, energy use and employment with a set of three scenarios.In comparison with the reference scenario, the reduction in CO2 emission level in Policy scenario is less than 13 by 2030 even with huge investment in renewable energy capacity and a clear turn away from carbon-intensive growth pattern. Cumulatively the difference of emissions between the Reference scenario and Policy scenario within 2013–2030 is less than 20%. The Chinese CO2 intensity and energy intensity targets are rather stringent. Reaching the CO2 intensity target is difficult even with the optimistic assumption of fast expansion of renewable energy capacity and fast structural change. However, while the renewable energy capacity grows fast, targets set for it are not equally ambitious. The set CO2 intensity and energy intensity targets call for concretization of energy policy.