Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts

Stefan Frank,Hugo Valin,Aline Mosnier,Robert Beach,Michael Obersteiner,Mario Herrero,Tomoko Hasegawa,Shaun Ragnauth,Jared Creason,Petr Havlík

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03489-1

Abstract

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) emissions. Reaching the climate target of the Paris Agreement will require significant emission reductions across sectors by 2030 and continued efforts thereafter. Here we show that the economic potential of non-CO2 emissions reductions from agriculture is up to four times as high as previously estimated. In fact, we find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO2eq non-CO2 reductions of around 1 GtCO2eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. At 100 $/tCO2eq agriculture could even provide non-CO2 reductions of 2.6 GtCO2eq/year in 2050 including demand side efforts. Immediate action to favor the widespread adoption of technical options in developed countries together with productivity increases through structural changes in developing countries is needed to move agriculture on track with a 2 °C climate stabilization pathway.

Highlights

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide emissions
Wollenberg et al.[14] stress the need to bridge the scientific gap between regional mitigation potentials from bottom-up studies with global mitigation requirements for climate stabilization and propose an aspirational mitigation target of 1 GtCO2eq/year for agriculture by 2030 to be consistent with 2 °C climate stabilization estimated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
Pressure from sustained population and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Asia are one of the main drivers for expansion of emissions intensive agricultural production in that region (+1.1 GtCO2eq/year compared to 2010 levels)

Summary

Introduction

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) emissions. We find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO2eq non-CO2 reductions of around 1 GtCO2eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. The fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)[2] estimates an economic bottom-up supply side mitigation potential of 0.3–0.6 GtCO2eq/year (at 100 $/tCO2eq) for agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions in 2030 using a set of technical options based on Smith et al.[4], which is 5%–10% reduction of current emissions. We quantify the global agricultural CH4 and N2O mitigation potential using a comprehensive set of technical and structural mitigation options on the supply side, and market feedbacks through consumption and international trade responses to price changes. By 2050, joint efforts on the supply and demand side could allow achieving up to 2.6 GtCO2eq/year of non-CO2 mitigation at 100 $/tCO2eq with potential synergies of around 0.7 GtCO2eq/year for land use change CO2 mitigation

Methods

Results

Conclusion