Abstract
The paper combines Baumol's model of structural change with a model of aggregate demand growth in the Keynesian–Kaleckian tradition to predict the dynamics of aggregate employment. The model for the demand regime is estimated with – and Baumol's model for the productivity regime is calibrated on – OECD data. The trajectory for employment predicted by the combination of the two models tracks the actual employment dynamics in the OECD over the period 1970–2010 remarkably well.
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