STRUCTURAL AND STOCHASTIC BEHAVIOR OF MEXICAN AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

Abstract

Mexican agricultural exports have grown faster than the country’s economy, suggesting a foreign exchange inflow and the use of production factors in Mexico. This work examines both the structural behavior of the agricultural exports and its stochastic behavior using data from 1993 to 2023. The structural part is modeled with three explanatory behaviors: first, the influence in exports of the U.S. economy through its Gross Domestic Product (GDP); second, the effect of the Mexican economy through its own GDP; and third, the search for a more profitable price abroad was modeled with the real exchange rate. On the other hand, the stochastic behavior was modeled with lags of the actual exports and other explanatory variables. After adjusting an autoregressive distributed lag model and verifying the existence of a long-term relationship between Mexican agricultural exports, U.S. GDP, Mexican GDP, and the real exchange rate, it was found that the behavior of the export growth is largely explained by the U.S. economy.