Structural analysis of the future of Iranian online banking employing a MICMAC approach

Abstract

This study aimed to develop Iranian online banking scenarios using the cross-impact matrix approach. In the present study, first, by reviewing the literature and interviewing experts, twenty-four factors affecting online banking were extracted to develop plausible scenarios. Then, the variables affecting the future of online banking were directly and indirectly estimated using a questionnaire and analysis by MICMAC software. Finally, according to the two most significant factors, “telecommunication and network platforms” and “online banking experts,” plausible scenarios for the future of Iranian online banking were developed. According to the research findings, four scenarios were presented. These scenarios included Mars, Captainless Ship, Nike, and Janus. In the first scenario, “Mars,” no network and telecommunication platform is underlying online banking, and there are no experts, nor is there any intention to recruit them. The second scenario, “Captainless Ship,” is based on the fact that there are facilities and infrastructure, but there is no expert and knowledgeable person to manage and control the work. In the third scenario, “Nike,” everything works well. Under such circumstances, the future of the online banking industry will be pretty promising and ideal, there are good telecommunications and network platforms, and highly specialized professionals and managers perform well. Finally, in the fourth scenario, “Janus,” experts are hired, but there are no network and telecommunication infrastructure and facilities to advance the work.