Structural Adjustment And The Stability Of The Nigerian Money Demand Function

Abstract

This paper uses cointegration vector error correction analysis to test the stability of the demand for real broad money (M2) in Nigeria over the quarterly period 1986:1 to 2001:4 in order to ascertain whether recent macroeconomic developments such as the implementation of the structural adjustment programme (SAP) in 1986; the liberalization of the exchange rate, domestic interest rate, and capital accounts; financial deepening and innovations; changes in monetary policy regimes; and increased integration of the economy with the rest of the world may have caused the real broad money demand function to become structurally unstable. Our empirical results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the real broad money aggregate, real income, inflation rate, domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate, and expected exchange rate. Furthermore, both the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the short- and long run parameters of the real money demand function. The stability of the parameters of the money demand equation provides the justification for the monetary authority to target the broad money supply in its bid to manage inflation and stimulate economic activity in Nigeria.