Strong-motion duration predictive models from subduction interface earthquakes recorded in the hill zone of the Valley of Mexico

Abstract

Many studies have found that ground-motion duration has a considerable influence on damage to conventional civil structures. Historically, Mexico City has been severely affected by long-duration distant subduction earthquakes because of the heterogeneous local site conditions underlying the subsoil of the city, which significantly amplify the soil response. Using a reliable database of earthquakes that occurred in the subduction zone of the Pacific Coast of Mexico, recorded in the hill zone of the Valley of Mexico from 1985 to 2020, predictive models are proposed in this study from existing definitions of strong-motion duration. These models were developed using a mixed-effects approach, which is a statistical method that can consider the correlation between data recorded from the same event. Such models have valuable applications in seismic and structural engineering because they can accurately define the dimension and randomness of strong-motion duration.