Strongholds under siege: Range-wide deforestation and poaching threaten mainland clouded leopards (Neofelis nebulosa)

Abstract

To mitigate the ongoing biodiversity crisis in Tropical Asia, caused by extensive deforestation and wildlife poaching, we will need to take more strategic approaches towards identifying and prioritizing meaningful conservation interventions. This, however, can prove difficult for data-limited species. Focusing on the little-studied mainland clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa), a potential umbrella species in the region, we demonstrate an accessible, flexible, and scalable approach applicable to any species. First, we model the species’ range-wide local extirpation threat using a Bayesian Belief Network, taking into account the distribution of remaining suitable habitat and major anthropogenic threats (habitat loss and poaching). We then identify remaining habitat strongholds (defined as large contiguous areas of high quality habitat where the species could survive over the mid-to-long term) and grouped them into stronghold complexes, which we categorized based on local extirpation threat and recent camera-trap survey status. Our results show a 34% decline in the range-wide area categorized as a stronghold due to forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018, with 80% of remaining strongholds identified as having a high or very high average threat of local extirpation. Based on published records, only 60% of remaining strongholds had at least one site surveyed by camera-traps in the last 10 years, highlighting an important knowledge gap concerning the species’ current distribution and population status. Combined, the results of our survey review and threat analysis suggest the species is likely extirpated from all of Vietnam, most of China, and large parts of Cambodia and Laos. Finally, we synthesize our findings, highlight tangible conservation needs, and propose actions for each stronghold complex based on the area’s specific threats, protection level, and survey status, paving the way for the detailed local investigations needed to implement meaningful interventions on the ground.