Strong Power to Weak Power Strategic Hedging in Regional Conflicts and China’s Involvement in the Saudi Arabia-Iran Rivalry

Abstract

This paper proposes a new typology of hedging, strong-to-weak conflict strategic hedging, which occurs when a strong power hedges in a regional conflict among weaker states. This paper proposes scope conditions and identification criteria for the classification of this specific type of hedging. After outlining the theory, this paper applies the framework to the case of China’s involvement in the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry. The results indicate that China’s involvement in the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry is a valid example of strong-to-weak conflict strategic hedging according to the proposed framework. In its conclusion, the paper provides insights into future work on this subject, such as the possibility to create a quantitative framework to support the existing qualitative theory. This research serves two purposes: to expand the current strategic hedging theory in international relations and to apply the expanded framework to analyze China’s hedging behavior in the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry.