Strong Inference

Abstract

Scientists these days tend to keep up a polite fiction that all science is equal. Except for the work of the misguided opponent whose arguments we happen to be refuting at the time, we speak as though every scientist's field and methods of study are as good as every other scientist's, and perhaps a little better. This keeps us all cordial when it comes to recommending each other for government grants. But I think anyone who looks at the matter closely will agree that some fields of science are moving forward very much faster than others, perhaps by an order of mag­ nitude, if numbers could be put on such estimates. The discoveries leap from the head­ lines - and they are real advances in complex and difficult subjects, like molecular biology and high-energy physics. As Alvin Weinberg (1964), says Hardly a month goes by without a stunning success in molecular biology being reported in the Proceed­ ing of the National Academy of Science. Why should there be such rapid advances in some fields and not in others? I think the usual explanations that we tend to think of-such as the tractability of the subject, or the quality or education of the men drawn into it, or the size of research contracts are important but inadequate. I have begun to believe that the primary factor in scienSource: Science (1965), 146:347-353. Copyright 1965 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science and reprinted by permission.