Abstract
This paper investigates duration dependence in the South African business cycle using non-parametric tests. The evidence falls into three parts. First, there is little evidence of duration dependence in periods of expansion. Secondly, there is some evidence of positive duration dependence in contractions for a pre-1972 sub-sample. Thirdly, there has been significant lengthening in the total cycle and of downturns since 1972, but no lengthening of expansions. It is consistent with these observations to argue that the stretching of the South African business cycle may be due to a loss of duration dependence in downturns since the early 1970s.
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