STREP: un modello di previsione dei flussi turistici internazionali per regione

Abstract

This paper presents the STREP model, which estimates the ability of each region to compete with others in attracting the largest number of international tourists from each main market of origin, who have chosen Italy as their holiday destination. Once the region to be studied has been chosen, the mechanism of competitiveness is explained by carrying out the analysis for the group of competing regions offering substitute tourist products, instead of for the region alone. So, the word Sliding means that the group of competing regions changes according to the specific area to be analysed. The word Panel means that the equations for the chosen group of regions are estimated simultaneously. The methodology has been applied to the case of the Veneto Region, in the North-East part of Italy, and good estimation results have been achieved using both the W-STREP (World to Region) model of the total international flows to the region, and the M-STREP (Multi-origin to Region) model of the tourist flows from each of the 21 main countries of origin of tourism demand to the Veneto region. The goal of the above models is twofold. Firstly, to implement at a regional level an appropriate mathematical and econometric analysis of international tourism demand. Secondly, to produce a reliable forecasting tool - to be used to obtain short- and medium-term estimates of international inbound tourism at a local level - that improves upon existing models and time-series techniques, both from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint.