Strengths of Actuarial Risk Assessment

Abstract

Research consistently shows that structured, actuarial approaches to recidivism prediction are more accurate than (unstructured) professional judgment. Therefore, the purpose of this chapter is to discuss the strengths of actuarial risk assessment. First, we will provide greater discussion of ways to conceptualize risk factors that may be included in risk scales (actuarial or other approaches). Then, we will discuss what types of information can be provided by actuarial risk scales (i.e., percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates). Also, this chapter will discuss how the greater objectivity inherent in actuarial risk scales contributes to understanding important psychometrics of the risk assessment approaches (e.g., interrater reliability, construct, and predictive validity) and how the predictive accuracy of actuarial scales compares to other approaches (e.g., structured professional judgment). These sections will be applicable to any type of offender risk assessment (i.e., any scale designed to predict an outcome among offenders). In the next section, the reader will be introduced to a small sampling of sexual offender risk scales (i.e., Static-99/R, Risk Matrix 2000, CBR, Stable-2007, Acute-2007, VRS-SO). Then, results of surveys will be highlighted to illustrate what scales are being used in practice and how the information is being used. Lastly, the practical clinical power of actuarial risk assessment instruments in everyday practice will be discussed.