Abstract
Against the backdrop of the deterioration of EU–Russia relations in recent years, there has been a shift in the awareness of hybrid threats all across the Union. At the same time, there is evidence of a growing political will to strengthen resilience to these threats. While hostile foreign actors have long deployed hybrid methods to target Europe, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014, interference in the 2016 US presidential election, and repeated cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at EU member states have marked a turning point, exposing Western countries’ unpreparedness and vulnerability to these threats. This article analyses the EU’s resilience to hybrid warfare from institutional, regulatory and societal perspectives, with a particular focus on the information space. By drawing on case studies from member states historically at the forefront of resisting and countering Russian-backed disinformation campaigns, this article outlines the case for a whole-of-society approach to countering hybrid threats and underscores the need for EU leadership in a standard-setting capacity.
Highlights
In recent years, the EU and its like-minded partners around the world have woken up to the persistent and acute dangers posed by hybrid threats
We have witnessed numerous other instances of Russian foreign interference in the domestic affairs of EU countries, including meddling in the 2016 Brexit referendum (Sabbagh et al 2020); financing far-right political parties in France, Hungary and Germany (Rettman 2017); spreading disinformation regarding the downing of flight MH17 (Kent 2020); and conducting targeted assassination attempts in the UK (Corera 2020) and Germany (Deutsche Welle 2020)
While foreign interference or disinformation is a phenomenon by no means unique to Russia, with other state and non-state actors deploying such methods to target the EU for political or commercial reasons, this article will consider the issue of hybrid threats within the broader geopolitical context of EU–Russia relations
Summary
The EU and its like-minded partners around the world have woken up to the persistent and acute dangers posed by hybrid threats. Recognising that a wide range of activities can be subsumed under the umbrella term of ‘hybrid threats’, this article makes the methodological choice to focus on disinformation to ensure analytical depth and allow for deeper consideration of case studies. It will incorporate case studies from various EU member states, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have historically been at the forefront of resisting and countering Russian-backed disinformation campaigns. This article advances the argument that the EU’s role in strengthening resilience against hybrid warfare must take a whole-of-society approach, along with facilitating international and inter-institutional cooperation and establishing common standards to mitigate vulnerabilities
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