Strength, speed, and anthropometric predictors of in-game batting performance in baseball

Abstract

ABSTRACT A key focus of sports science research is the identification of quantitative assessments that can predict players’ on-field performance and developmental potential. Despite efforts to establish predictive models, there are few validated measures that show reliable associations and large gaps in understanding. Here, we test a multidimensional battery of assessments developed through the USA Baseball, Prospect Development Pipeline that capture strength and functional movement abilities, and anthropometric characteristics, in a two-year cohort of collegiate baseball players from the Appalachian League. Swing propensity metrics for Zone Contact Percentage (ZCP: proportion pitches in strike zone swung at and hit) and Hard-Hit Percentage (HHP: proportion in-play balls with exit velocity ≥ 95 mph) were calculated on 189 players. Models testing hierarchical combinations of anthropometric and anthropometric plus assessment data were implemented using nested cross-validation with random forest and elastic net regression. Results indicate that anthropometric features account for 29% of variance in ZCP and 50–55% of HHP, while the addition of assessment contributed an additional 1–3% to ZCP and 5–12% to HHP, with top predictors coming from PDP strength and power assessments. These findings delineate contributions of andromorphic and physical abilities to in-game baseball performance using a validated assessment battery and advanced game statistics.