Streamflow reconstruction for the Guxiang River, eastern Tien Shan (China): linkages to the surrounding rivers of Central Asia

Abstract

Based on the high correlation of the tree-ring widths of larch and spruce trees with the actual streamflow variations, the streamflow reconstruction of the Guxiang River was developed for the period 1680–2009, with the low and high streamflow periods identified. The reconstruction model accounts for 41.1 % of the instrumental streamflow variance during the period 1957–2007. Some significant cycles (18.1, 8.1, 3.8, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4 and 2.1 years) are found using the multi-taper spectral analysis. The significant correlations with the gridded SPEI dataset revealed that the streamflow reconstruction also represents the drought variation for a large area of the eastern Tien Shan. The streamflow reconstruction of the Guxiang River shows the decreasing trend since the 1970s, and compares well with high and low streamflow periods of the Selenge River previously estimated from tree-ring records. The synoptic climatology analysis reveals that there is the relationship between anomalous atmospheric circulation and extreme hydrological events in the Guxiang River basin.