Abstract
Human society and ecosystems worldwide are increasinAagly threatened by water shortages. Despite numerous studies of climatic impacts on water availability, little is known about the influences of socioeconomic development on streamflow and water sustainability. Here, we show that the streamflow from the Yellow River to the sea has decreased by more than 80% in total over the last 60 years due to increased water consumption by agricultural, industrial and urban developments (76% of the streamflow decrease, similarly hereinafter), decreased precipitation (13%), reservoir construction (6%) and revegetation (5%). We predict that if the past trends in streamflow will continue, year-round dry-up in the lower Yellow River will commence in the late 2020s or early 2030s, unless effective countermeasures such as water diversion from the Yangtze River are taken. These results suggest that streamflow in semiarid basins is highly vulnerable to human impacts and that streamflow decline would in turn hinder further socioeconomic development and endanger river-sea ecosystems.
Highlights
IntroductionThe decline of freshwater sources is fatal for human water security and ecosystem sustainability
The decline of freshwater sources is fatal for human water security and ecosystem sustainability.Human society and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by water shortages, despite the global abundance and the renewable character of this resource [1,2,3,4]
From the earliest decade (1957–1966) to the latest decade (2007–2016), the time-averaged streamflow at Tangnaihai Station (Figure 1A) (1553 km from the headwater, same as below) increased by 2.0%, while the time-averaged streamflow decreased by 9.3% at Lanzhou (2096 km), 27% at Toudaoguai
Summary
The decline of freshwater sources is fatal for human water security and ecosystem sustainability. Human society and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by water shortages, despite the global abundance and the renewable character of this resource [1,2,3,4]. The water discharge to the Sea from the Nile decreased to null after the construction of the Aswan High Dam and increased water extraction for agriculture development [5]. Dramatic streamflow decline has occurred in the Indus River and the Rio Grande. This circumstance is primarily caused by the heterogeneous distribution of freshwater in the world and time [2,7] and the increased water demand with increased socioeconomic development
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