Stratigraphic biases in the analysis of taxonomic survivorship

Abstract

Taxonomic survivorship curves may reflect stratigraphic as well as biologic factors. The approximately lognormal distribution of lengths of Phanerozoic time intervals produces an error in the estimation of taxonomic durations that is also lognormally distributed. As demonstrated by several simulated examples, this error may cause concave taxonomic survivorship curves to appear linear, especially if the maximum durations involved are relatively short. The error of estimation also makes highly concave taxonomic survivorship curves virtually unrecognizable. Incomplete sampling of the fossil record, on the other hand, may not be a serious problem in survivorship analysis. Simulated paleontological sampling employing a simple model suggests that survivorship curves tend to retain their original shapes even when as few as 20% of the taxa have been discovered. However, concave taxonomic survivorship curves tend to lose their concavity as efficiency of sampling declines.