Stratifying the risk of NSAID-related upper gastrointestinal clinical events: Results of a double-blind outcomes study in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Abstract

Background & Aims: Epidemiologic data indicate that the risk of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)–related gastrointestinal (GI) clinical events varies based on patients' clinical characteristics. The authors determined risk factors for NSAID-related clinical upper GI events and the event rates, absolute risk reductions, and numbers needed to treat for individual risk factors for a nonselective NSAID and a selective cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitor in a double-blind outcomes trial. Methods: Eight thousand seventy-six rheumatoid arthritis patients aged ≥50 years (or ≥40 on corticosteroid therapy) were randomly assigned to rofecoxib 50 mg daily or naproxen 500 mg twice daily for a median of 9 months. The development of clinical upper GI events (bleeding, perforation, obstruction, and symptomatic ulcer identified on clinically indicated work-up) was assessed. Results: Significant risk factors included prior upper GI events, age ≥65, and severe rheumatoid arthritis (RR, 2.3–3.9). Patients administered naproxen who had prior upper GI complications or who were aged ≥75 years had 18.84 or 14.46 events per 100 patient-years, and the risk of events remained constant over time. The reduction in events with rofecoxib was similar in high- and low-risk subgroups (RR, 0.31–0.68). The number needed to treat with rofecoxib instead of naproxen to avert 1 GI event was 10–12 in highest risk patients (prior event, age ≥75 years, or severe rheumatoid arthritis), 17–33 in patients with other risk factors, and 42–106 in low-risk patients. Conclusions: NSAID-related GI events increase dramatically with risk factors such as prior events or older age. Ten to twelve high-risk patients need to be treated with a protective strategy such as the selective cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitor, rofecoxib, to avert a clinical GI event.GASTROENTEROLOGY 2002;123:1006-1012