Stratified pathways to Italy's "latest-late" transition to adulthood.

Abstract

During the last few decades, Western societies have undergone substantial social and demographic changes, and the transition to adulthood progressively moved from an early, contracted, and simple pattern to a late, protracted, and complex one. These trends have been extensively analyzed under the Second Demographic Transition framework, emphasizing the role of individual agency and ideational change. A growing parallel literature underlines social stratification, the gender revolution, and contextual opportunities as driving forces. This paper builds on this emerging literature to analyze trends of the transition to adulthood in Italy, a salient social and demographic context among the "lowest-low" fertility countries. Drawing from the European Social Survey 2018 data, I use Sequence Analysis to compute a taxonomy of ideal types of transition to adulthood and analyze their evolution across cohorts. These analyses show that the emergence of a late and protracted transition to adulthood, associated with "lowest-low" fertility levels, is stratified by gender and socioeconomic background. This study contributes to the growing literature on the social stratification of life course trajectories and the relevance of contextual opportunities and constraints by analyzing the transition to adulthood in a low-opportunity context from a longitudinal, stratified perspective.