Stratification of Intermediate-Risk Endometrial Cancer Patients into Groups at High Risk or Low Risk for Recurrence Based on Tumor Gene Expression Profiles

Abstract

Endometrial cancers classified as "intermediate risk" based on clinical and/or pathologic features are associated with a 15% to 20% risk of recurrence. Here, we test whether global gene expression profiling can distinguish intermediate-risk tumors into high-risk and low-risk subgroups. Tumor specimens were obtained from 75 intermediate-risk endometrial cancer patients, 13 who had recurred and 62 who had not recurred with a median follow-up of 24 months. Gene expression profiles were obtained using the Affymetrix U133A GeneChip oligonucleotide microarray. The genes most associated with risk of recurrence were used to create a risk score using a leave-one-out cross-validation method and the univariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Time to recurrence curves for the high-risk and low-risk subgroups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the difference in time to recurrence between these two subgroups was tested using the log-rank test. There was a significant difference in time to recurrence between high-risk and low-risk patients using risk scores as defined above (P = 0.04). The estimated hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 3.07 (1.00-9.43). Patients with intermediate-risk endometrial cancers identified as high-risk for recurrence according to a gene expression-based risk score have a significantly increased risk for recurrence compared with those classified as low risk. These findings suggest that gene expression profiling can potentially contribute to the clinical classification and management of intermediate-risk endometrial cancers.