Strategy in Secession Games

Abstract

Many factors influence the onset and outcome of secessionist movements. We argue that before greed, grievance, opportunity, internal politics, or the international system can matter, potential secessionists must have a credible exit option, and in particular unilaterally exit by force. In this article we create a bargaining model of secession that incorporates this insight and allows us to organize a wide variety of existing explanations for separatist politics into a single theoretical framework where military capabilities, policy preferences and the possibility of a negotiated settlement play central roles. We find that policy polarization increases the intensity of fighting, the decisiveness of military means to suppress the secessionists determines the likelihood of a peaceful solution, and that even with complete information policy differences can drive the secessionists and the central government to war. We consider the role of international actors in secession and explore how they can affect secession outcomes.