Strategy for the Development of the Russian Economy in Modern Conditions of Global Turbulence

Abstract

AbstractPurpose: Currently, the Russian economy is subject to increased turbulence processes on a global scale (“the economy of sanctions,” import substitution, development and spread of coronavirus infection, etc.). According to the results of 2019–2020, the share in international trade of Germany, Italy, Belgium and Russia is declining. The decline in indicators for the Russian economy is due to such strategic factors as follows: “Dutch disease,” the dependence of the Russian economy on the US dollar (the predominance of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets in settlements for the main export product); lack of opportunities to scale the market for sales of competitive domestic products by using the potential of foreign markets. At the same time, access to international markets is associated with the dynamics of foreign investment in Russia. The main investors in the Russian economy are countries that are not associated with national production and do not occupy leading positions in the international division of labor. Therefore, the issue of integrating the Russian economy into the newly formed value chains of high-tech industries becomes relevant. Findings: The authors concluded that import substitution and the orientation of the producer to national development potential should be considered as strategic guidelines for the development of the domestic economy in turbulence, diversification of geo-economics ties with an increase in the share of China and other growing economies, as well as improving the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms.KeywordsTurbulenceStrategic developmentInternational division of laborForeign investmentJEL ClassificationE32F01F21P52