Strategy, Demand, Management, and Costs of an International Cholera Vaccine Stockpile

Abstract

In this article, we review the feasibility of mass vaccination against cholera and estimate the global population at risk for epidemic cholera. We then examine the cost of establishing and managing a cholera vaccine stockpile and summarize published mathematical models of the estimated impact of reactive vaccination campaigns developed for the current Haitian outbreak and a recent outbreak in Zimbabwe. On the basis of these evaluations, we recommend a stockpile that starts at 2 million doses, with an estimated annual cost of $5.5-$13.9 million in 2013, and grows to 10 million doses per year by 2017, with an annual cost of $27-$51 million. We believe that the stockpile can enhance efforts to mitigate future cholera outbreaks by guaranteeing the availability of cholera vaccines and, through use of the stockpile, by revealing knowledge about the efficient use of cholera vaccines during and after crises.