Strategies for improving food security under the impact of external grain price fluctuations: evidence from China

Abstract

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to explore strategies for improving food security under the impact of external food price fluctuations. Using impulse response function, complex network analysis, and other methods, we studied the linkage between CBOT prices of soybeans, rice, wheat, corn, and Chinese futures prices from 2009 to 2022. This article analyzes the prominent price linkage relationships, network evolution characteristics, and development trends. The results show that CBOT soybean and China soybean futures prices, CBOT wheat and China soybean futures prices, and CBOT corn and China wheat futures prices are three prominent price linkage relationships. The three pairs of price linkage relationships are constantly changing over time and show a gradual weakening trend. The price of domestic soybean futures and CBOT soybean futures have a strong association. The sudden food crisis will strengthen the connection between international and Chinese grain futures prices. The above results demonstrate the importance of strengthening the independence of China’s futures markets. Based on the above analysis results, the paper put forward policy suggestions such as improving soybean yield levels, utilizing the futures market for risk management, and taking measures to respond to possible changes in Chinese wheat prices based on international corn futures prices.