Strategic Timing of Ballot Initiatives in Direct Democracy

Abstract

This paper considers whether ideological ballot initiatives are strategically placed on ballots by interest groups. The overarching hypothesis is that an ideological ballot initiative is more likely to be placed on the ballot during an election cycle in which an electorate is likely to turn out that is receptive to that ideology (e.g. primary elections in which one party is selecting amongst compelling candidates with broad followings and the other is universally expected to select the incumbent, or general elections during bad economic cycles when the party of the opposite ideology is in power). Several suggestive empirical and observational tests are conducted that tentatively support the hypothesis.