Abstract
It is expected that crude oil production in China will maintain its current level until 2020. Driven by higher living standards and the rapid development of energy intensive industries, China's oil demand will increase rapidly and might lead to heavier import dependency. Three cases of demand forecasts are presented, but for the sake of sustainable economic and social development, neither the high nor the middle case is favourable for China. Thus, China must seek a path of oil saving economic development, and limit oil consumption to no more than 350MT in 2010 and 450MT in 2020. Meanwhile, in order to secure the oil supply, the following strategies should be adopted: save oil and develop alternative energies; stabilise domestic oil production and to diversify oil imports and overseas oil exploration and development; accelerate the gas industry and introduce strategic petroleum reserves.
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