Abstract
This study investigates the spatial characteristics of existing utility-scale solar energy (USSE) development in New York State (NYS) and assesses the land-suitability for the future development of USSE needed to achieve the State’s renewable energy goals using GIS-MCDA techniques. Slope, proximity to electric substations, protected lands, and soil quality were used as criteria to develop land suitability scenarios. 40% of present USSE capacity has been developed on agricultural lands, and 84% of identified land suitable for future USSE development (∼140 GW potential) is agricultural. The USSE potential on non-agricultural land is 22.5 GW – just sufficient to accommodate the development of 21.6 GW, which is the estimated USSE capacity that will be required to achieve NYS’s 2030 goal of 70% renewable electricity. Thus, agricultural lands will be the prime target for future USSE development. Exploring the state-specific synergies for solar-agriculture colocation, preventing the spatially-concentrated development of USSE, and incentivizing the use of unproductive agricultural lands will help mitigate negative impacts of USSE development on agricultural lands.
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