Strategic Hedging and Changes in Geopolitical Capabilities for Second-Tier States

Abstract

Recently Tessman and Wolfe (International Studies Review 13:214–240, 2011) and Tessman (Security Studies 21(2):192–231, 2012) introduced the concept of strategic hedging as a core strategy for second-tier states operating in the current deconcentrating unipolar system with the United States as system leader. Being a crucial element in understanding the connection between strategic hedging intentions and actual actions, this article investigates the measurement of strategic hedging capabilities of second-tier states. Building on earlier research of Geeraerts and Salman (Chinese Political Science Review 1(1):60–80, 2016) on the measurement of strategic hedging capabilities, we improve significantly the measurement methodology, which often leads to quite different results in strategic hedging capabilities. Using the new approach, we investigate how the strategic hedging capabilities of the leading eleven second-tier states have evolved over the period 2005–2015, extending the comparative analysis performed by Geeraerts and Salman for the year 2013.