Strategic demand forecasts for the tablet PC market using the Bayesian mixed logit model and market share simulations

Abstract

Since the release of the Apple iPad and the explosion of consumer demand for tablet PCs, a number of companies are entering into the tablet PC market, creating a situation that is becoming more fiercely competitive, complex, and difficult to predict. Under the singularity of the Korean tablet PC market, into which both the iPad and Galaxy Tab (with an Android operating system) were simultaneously released, this study closely analyses consumer preferences for tablet PCs. It uses the Bayesian mixed logit model, which can reflect consumers’ heterogeneous preferences based on data collected from a conjoint method, and using the estimates of the consumer utility function with model verification, it offers forecasts for the tablet PC market under six likely situations.