STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN A HETEROGENEOUS AND UNCERTAIN BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: INTEGRATED MODELS FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive examination of models employed in strategic decision-making within a context characterized by heterogeneity and uncertainty in the business environment. It elucidates prominent theories and methodologies utilized for the identification, analysis, and response to diverse economic, social, and technological factors influencing the market environment. The discourse encompasses the evolution in strategic decision-making paradigms, encompassing transitions towards scenario planning, the delicate equilibrium between intuitive approaches and analytical methodologies, and the organizational adaptation to internal variations. The research methodology proposed herein is grounded in a systematic approach, emphasizing analysis and synthesis. The article directs its focus towards diverse integrative analysis models that amalgamate internal and external facets of organizations, facilitating efficacious strategic decision-making. The scrutiny of models such as the Ansoff Matrix, Porter's Five Forces, McKinsey 7S Model, and BCG Growth-Share Matrix reveals that each model possesses distinct advantages and limitations contingent upon the specific conditions and requisites of the business environment in question. The author asserts that there exists no singular optimal model universally applicable to all scenarios, underscoring the imperative for flexible integration and adaptation of varied approaches. Illustratively, this may involve the amalgamation of Porter's Five Forces model with SWOT analysis, accounting for both internal and external factors, or the augmentation of the McKinsey 7S Model with external analyses, such as PESTEL analysis. The conclusions drawn in the article underscore that the achievement of success in strategic decision-making within the contemporary dynamic and unpredictable business environment hinges on organizations' capacity for flexibility, adaptability, and innovation. The escalating complexity and rapid pace of change necessitate companies to formulate comprehensive strategies that encompass various aspects and approaches for the development of effective solutions.