Strange attractor in earthquake swarms near Valsad (Gujarat), India

Abstract

Valsad district in south Gujarat near the western coast of the peninsular India experienced earthquake swarms since early February 1986. Seismic monitoring through a network of micro earthquake seismographs showed a well concentrated seismic activity over an area of 7 × 10 km2 with the depth of foci extending from 1 to 15 km. A total number of 21,830 earthquakes were recorded during March 1986 to June 1988. The daily frequency of earthquakes for this period was utilized to examine deterministic chaos through evaluation of dimension of strange attractor and Lyapunov exponent. The low dimension of 2.1 for the strange attractor and positive value of the largest Lyapunov exponent suggest chaotic dynamics in Valsad earthquake swarms with at least 3 parameters for earthquake predictability. The results indicate differences in the characteristics of deterministic chaos in intraplate and interplate regions of India.