Stormwater Reservoir Sizing in Respect of Uncertainty

Abstract

The sizing of the stormwater reservoir, as the design of its properties, usually requires simulations of a basin runoff for a long rainfall series using a hydrodynamic model. In the case of insufficient observations, the rainfall series can be reproduced using empirical approaches. One of the crucial elements in the sizing of the stormwater reservoir is determination of duration time and intensity of rainfall (design rainfall event), for which the maximum reservoir capacity is being obtained. The outcome is, however, affected by significant uncertainty of runoff modeling. The aim of the study is to analyze the effect of the uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff model on calculated capacities of stormwater reservoirs, along with estimated duration times of the design rainfall. The characteristics of the rainfall events—intensity, duration, and frequency—were reproduced using an empirical approach of IDF (Intensity–Duration–Frequency). The basin response to the precipitation was modeled using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) and its uncertainty was estimated on the basis of the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) method. The obtained probabilistic solution was compared with the deterministic one, neglecting the uncertainty. Duration times of the design rainfall determined in respect of the reservoir outflow using the probabilistic model were longer than those found with a deterministic approach. This has an effect on the desired capacities of the stormwater reservoir, which were overestimated when uncertainty was neglected.