Stormwater quantity and quality response to climate change using artificial neural networks

Abstract

AbstractThis research investigates the potential impacts of climate change on stormwater quantity and quality generated by urban residential areas on an event basis in the rainy season. An urban residential stormwater drainage area in southeast Calgary, Alberta, Canada is the focus of future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). A regression‐based statistical downscaling tool was employed to conduct spatial downscaling of daily precipitation and daily mean temperature using projection outputs from the coupled GCM. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were applied to current climate scenarios to generate future climate scenarios. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) developed for modelling stormwater runoff quantity and quality used projected climate scenarios as network inputs. The hydrological response to climate change was investigated through stormwater runoff volume and peak flow, while the water quality responses were investigated through the event mean value (EMV) of five parameters: turbidity, conductivity, water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH. First flush (FF) effects were also noted. Under future climate scenarios, the EMVs of turbidity increased in all storms except for three events of short duration. The EMVs of conductivity were found to decline in small and frequent storms (return period < 5 years); but conductivity EMVs were observed to increase in intensive events (return period ≥ 5 years). In general, an increasing EMV was observed for water temperature, whereas a decreasing trend was found for DO EMV. No clear trend was found in the EMV of pH. In addition, projected future climate scenarios do not produce a stronger FF effect on dissolved solids and suspended solids compared to that produced by the current climate scenario. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.