Storm tracks in regional climate simulations: verification and changes with doubled CO2

Abstract

The ability of the CSIRO Atmospheric Research’s regional climate model (RCM) to simulatethe mean July storm track over Australia is investigated in this study. The observed storm trackis characterized by the time-averaged eddy kinetic energy in the ECMWF analyses for years1985–1992. RCM runs nested within these analyses are used to verify the ability of the modelto simulate the storm track with “perfect” boundary conditions. Comparison is also made with20 years of the CSIRO9 Mk2 global climate model (GCM) and the RCM nested within thisGCM, for equilibrium simulations with both current and doubled CO2 levels. Correlations ofthe meridional wind with a point within the storm track over Australia are used to characterizethe structure of the mean baroclinic wave within the storm track. The location of the stormtracks in both the RCM and the GCM are simulated very well. The main deficiency is the lackof intensity of the upper-level storm track, but the RCM is more realistic than the GCM, indicating that the intensity of the storm track is partly related to horizontal resolution. Themean wave structure in the GCM and the RCM simulations is very similar to observed. Underdoubled CO2 conditions, both the upper-level jetstream and storm track intensify, and moveequatorward, in response to the increasing upper-troposphere north–south temperature gradient.In the lower troposphere, the mean and eddy kinetic energy decrease to the southeast ofAustralia in response to the decrease in the north–south temperature gradient there. As aresponse to the generally decreasing mid-tropospheric north–south temperature gradient, themean baroclinic wave appears to become slightly more barotropic, as indicated by less tilt inthe zonal direction.