Storm damage risk assessment for offshore cage culture

Abstract

This study establishes a practical methodology for storm damage risk assessment and zoning for offshore cage culture by superimposing the vulnerability theory onto hydrodynamic modeling. The peak significant wave height is statistically correlated to the normalized fatigue load criteria at specified loading cycles to classify the destruction duration and damage state during storm events. The yield damage of the flotation pipe under cyclical wave oscillations was identified as the major failure mechanism of the sea cage. The structural failure risk would significantly decrease to 4.5-m waves, which is much lower than the manufacturing standard due to cumulative damage in a relatively short operation time. The wave-circulation model was applied to hindcast 112 high-impact typhoon scenarios in the study area for the return period analysis of the storm wave field. The damage risk distribution of the cage culture was mapped across the landscape to increase storm strength according to the vulnerability classification. The effectiveness of island shielding was explicitly revealed, and the leeward side was overall less risky as the return period increased, with the safe area shrinking inshore. For extreme conditions over a 100-year return period, the shield performance of leeward bays varied significantly due to the shoreline profile differences. Some existing cage deployment locations are at-risk relative to the structural resistance capability, whereas other unrecognized areas might be suitable for cage culture. These findings imply the necessity of storm risk assessment before proactive prevention measures and deployment zoning. The methodology may also be adapted to storm risk predictions for other facilities in the coastal ocean.