Storage yield relationships for reservoirs by a sequential-operation algorithm and comparisons with Gould's probability matrix method

Abstract

An algorithm has been developed to compute the no-shortage storage capacity versus any regulation including lake evaporation losses and dead storage. Results of this procedure indicated that storages from about 50-yr long historical records of twelve streams in Turkey were much greater than 1% risk storages of Gould's probability matrix method. Explanations for this discrepancy, are given, and it is argued that the latter method underestimates the necessary storages. The algorithm of this study has been applied with twenty 50-yr synthetic segments of twelve streams in Turkey generated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' package HEC-4, and based on these data the ratio of the storage capacity with 1% exceedence probability to the single storage from the historical sequence is found to be about 1.5.